Frequently Asked Questions

PolyLeviathan is an intelligence platform for Polymarket traders. It indexes 183M+ orders, 1.7M+ wallets, and 46K+ markets. You get real-time whale positions, Elo-rated trader rankings, ML-powered insider activity signals, live order book depth, and original geopolitical risk briefings. Free, no account needed.

Yes. No paywall, no login, no wallet connection required. Every feature is available to anyone who visits the site.

No. PolyLeviathan is read-only. You can search any wallet address, browse any market, and read any briefing without credentials.

No. PolyLeviathan is independent. Polymarket has not endorsed it or contributed to it. All data is sourced from Polymarket's public CLOB trade history and Activity API.

PolyLeviathan is the only platform with an Elo-based trader ranking system — no competitor (Polywhaler, Hashdive, PolyDive) has built this. Elo lets you distinguish a $50k bet from a 1400-rated wallet versus the same bet from a 700-rated wallet. Those are different signals. PolyLeviathan also publishes original geopolitical briefings scored across four transparent dimensions, and runs an XGBoost insider detection model that surfaces flagged trades 30 seconds after execution. Most tools show raw whale positions. PolyLeviathan tells you which wallets are actually good.

No. PolyLeviathan is informational only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Prediction markets involve real risk.

A whale is a wallet placing large positions, typically $5,000 or more per trade. Large positions move prices and can reflect information asymmetry. Tracking them gives you context that public odds alone do not.

PolyLeviathan ingests trade data from Polymarket's CLOB in real time. Every trade gets attributed to a wallet, sized, and flagged if large enough. The dashboard and per-market whale panels surface this as it happens, with position size, direction (YES/NO), and timing.

Yes. Every market detail page has a Whale Intel panel showing the largest recent trades on that market. The live order book shows where large resting orders sit.

The Scanner shows regime signals and Elo divergence data across all active non-sports markets. Smart-money signals are computed in bulk and refreshed every 15 minutes. A live side panel surfaces clarification alerts and flagged insider activity. You scan the full landscape without clicking into each market individually.

Each market gets classified into one of three regimes based on recent price action: Momentum (prices are trending and likely to continue), Mean Reversion (prices are reverting toward a prior level), or Random (no detectable pattern). Regime classification helps you tell whether price movement is driven by new information or just noise.

PolyLeviathan assigns every Polymarket trader an Elo rating using the same mathematical system as chess. Each resolved trade is a match against the market consensus at the time of the trade. Win and your Elo rises. Lose and it falls. A variable K-factor scales the rating change with experience.

One $500k lucky bet can make a mediocre trader look elite by PnL. Elo penalises this. A trader who gets 200 correct calls right on contested 50/50 markets ranks far higher than someone who made one enormous bet on a near-certainty. Elo rewards calibration across volume, not one outsized win.

Our data across 1.7M wallets shows roughly 70% hold an Elo below 1000, meaning they lose to market consensus more often than they win. Polymarket is not a game with average outcomes. The Elo distribution has two clusters: a large group of persistent losers below 1000 and a smaller group of persistent winners above it. The middle is thin. Most retail traders are not profitable, and that gap between groups is stable over time.

Across 1.7M wallets, Elo ratings don't form a bell curve. They form two peaks: persistent losers below 1000 and persistent winners above 1300, with a thin middle. If Polymarket were pure luck, ratings would converge toward average over time. They don't. Skill on Polymarket is real and it sticks around.

The K-factor controls how much each trade moves your rating. New wallets have a high K-factor, so early trades shift the rating fast while the sample is small. Experienced wallets have a low K-factor. Once you've resolved 200+ trades, your rating is hard to move significantly in either direction.

Go to the Trader page and paste any Polygon wallet address (0x...) into the search bar. You'll get their Elo rating, Elo history chart, all-time PnL, win rate, open positions, and recent trades.

Every profile includes: Elo rating with history chart, all-time realised PnL, win rate, number of resolved trades, current open positions and their mark-to-market value, recent trade history, and a market category breakdown. Notable wallets show a display name instead of the raw address.

The leaderboard ranks every tracked Polymarket wallet by Elo rating, all-time PnL, and trading volume. Ratings update as trades resolve. You can sort and filter to find the highest-rated traders, the most profitable, or the highest-volume players.

Polymarket prohibits trading on stolen confidential information, trading on illegal tips from someone who could not trade themselves, and trading if you hold a position of authority or influence that could affect the outcome. You also may not trade at the direction of someone who can influence the event.

Yes, if the information was obtained lawfully and you do not owe anyone a duty of confidentiality. That includes publicly available information, your own forecasts, and analysis built from public data. The key distinction is whether the information belongs to someone else or you are barred from using it.

No. It violates Polymarket's Terms of Use and the platform treats it as a market-integrity issue. The same policy also prohibits fraud, market manipulation, self-dealing, front-running, information misuse, attempted manipulation, and disruptive practices.

Polymarket says it uses multi-layered monitoring, reviews unusual activity in real time, and relies on blockchain transparency to make trades publicly viewable. If warranted, it may ban wallets, take legal action, or refer the matter to law enforcement.

Polymarket asks users to report suspicious or potentially prohibited activity on the Polymarket Discord or by email at [email protected].

Market clarifications are smart contract updates that change how a Polymarket market will resolve. They matter because they shift the correct interpretation of a market and, by extension, who wins. PolyLeviathan detects clarifications as they are published and surfaces them immediately in the Scanner with the exact text and a link to the affected market.

The briefings are original analysis on geopolitical situations actively traded on Polymarket. Each one covers a live crisis theatre. The goal is simple: tell you what changed, what it means for price, and where the market consensus is still wrong.

Every event gets scored on a 0-10 scale across four dimensions, combined into a single weighted composite. The formula is public and visible on every briefing page. No editorial guesswork, no hidden weighting.

Transmission (30%): how far the event could spread across systems, borders, or markets. Escalation (25%): the routes through which things could get worse. Severity (22.5%): the immediate damage already done. Resolution (22.5%, inverted): how visible an exit looks — a score of 10 means no off-ramp exists. Each dimension runs 1-10. The composite is a weighted sum.

Scoring forces precision. Most geopolitical analysis says "tensions are elevated" with no way to compare or track change. PolyLeviathan's formula lets you compare a Middle East escalation against a European political crisis on the same scale, and track how both shift over time. You can disagree with a specific dimension score and know exactly what you're disputing.

Active and escalating campaigns get priority. Each briefing page shows when it was last scored and what changed.

Over 46,000 active and historical Polymarket prediction markets, 1.7 million unique wallets, and 183 million individual orders processed.

Market prices and trade data update in near real-time. Trader profiles revalidate every 2 minutes. Elo ratings update as trades resolve. The Scanner polls every 30 seconds.

The live order book on each market page shows the current best bids and asks on the Polymarket CLOB for YES and NO outcomes. Actual resting liquidity, not simulated. Liquidity overlays show depth at each price level so you can see where volume is concentrated.

Everything originates from Polymarket's public infrastructure: the CLOB data, Polygon blockchain events, and Polymarket's public API. PolyLeviathan normalises, stores, and serves this through its own backend.