PolyLeviathanBuilt for traders who
need to know.
PolyLeviathan is an intelligence layer for Polymarket. It tracks whale positions, scores trader performance by Elo rating, visualises market depth, and publishes original analysis on the events that move prices.
183M+
Orders Analysed
1.7M+
Wallets Tracked
46K+
Active Markets
Mission
Prediction markets work when participants are informed.
Most retail traders on Polymarket have no visibility into where large positions sit, no way to benchmark their own track record, and no way to tell whether market prices reflect real information or just inertia.
PolyLeviathan pulls, normalises, and surfaces Polymarket data so the signal is visible: who is winning, by how much, on which markets, and what the Elo distribution implies about persistent skill differences.
The briefing layer adds original analysis on live geopolitical and macro situations, with transparent scoring. You see the methodology, not just the verdict.
Key Findings
~70%
of wallets lose money
Across 1.7M tracked wallets, roughly 70% have an Elo below 1000. They lose to market consensus more often than they win. Polymarket is not an average-outcome game.
Bimodal
Elo distribution
Ratings don't form a bell curve. Two clusters: persistent losers below 1000, persistent winners above 1300. The thin middle never filled in. Skill on Polymarket is real and it sticks.
~21
high-confidence insider flags
At any given time, roughly 21 wallets score above 0.5 on our XGBoost model. That rarity is by design. When a flag fires at that level, the trade pattern closely matches historically observed insider behaviour.
Capabilities
Whale Scanner
See the largest positions and live trades across every active Polymarket market. Filter by size, category, and time window. You know what the biggest wallets are doing before the crowd prices it in.
Trader Intelligence
Full performance profiles for any Polymarket address: lifetime PnL, position history, market exposure, and an Elo rating benchmarked against 1.7 million tracked wallets. Our data shows the distribution is bimodal. Persistent winners and persistent losers, not a sea of average.
Market Depth & HUD
Per-market dashboards with a live order book, liquidity overlays, and a whale ticker showing large-position activity as it flows in.
Elo Leaderboard
Rankings across the full trader population, adjusted for the difficulty of the markets they traded. Elo rewards correct calls on contested markets, not lucky wins on near-certainties.
Geopolitical Briefings
Original analysis on live crisis theatres, scored across severity, escalation path, systemic transmission, and resolution visibility. Built for traders pricing conflict risk where public information is incomplete.
Insider Activity Detection
An XGBoost model scores every trade from 0 to 1 based on how closely it resembles historically observed insider-like behaviour. Flagged trades surface in the Scanner every 30 seconds. The formula is open.
Methodology
Nothing is hidden.
Event scores use four weighted dimensions: severity, escalation path, systemic transmission, and resolution visibility. The formula is public and visible on every briefing page. Trader Elo uses a variable K-factor: each resolved trade scores against the market consensus, the K-factor scales down with experience, and the expected score per trade is fixed at 0.5. No opponent weighting. All scores recalculate live.
Cross-system contagion risk
Routes to deterioration
Immediate damage done
Inverted — 10 = no off-ramp
PolyLeviathanNot financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.