PolyLeviathanIntelligence Briefing
Geopolitical risk, theatre by theatre. What changed, what it means, and where the market is still wrong.
These are sample cards for each band. The live event cards still use the score formula, but this makes the color system obvious at a glance.
Contained pressure, no systemic spread.
Yellow state. Serious, but still localised and reversible.
Material escalation with market spillover.
Amber state. Clear escalation path and broader pricing impact.
Regional shock with major infrastructure damage.
Red state. Direct impact on energy, transport, or military posture.
Systemic shock across multiple global channels.
Black / red glow state. Food, energy, finance, and alliances all move together.
Iran–Israel Phase II: The Decapitation Campaign
Trump pauses strikes for five days as Oman mediates and Tehran stays silent.
Taiwan Strait: PRC Pressure Campaign
PRC naval exercises maintain elevated tempo. No new escalation since February. Watching for signals around April legislative session.
Russia–NATO: Threshold Management
Frontline stable. Baltic Sea incidents remain below Article 5 threshold. European rearmament spending accelerating through 2026.