Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
Category: Politics
Created: Nov 24, 2025
Closes: Mar 31, 2026
PoliticsChinaGeopoliticsForeign PolicyWorldEarn 4%
Price History
Historical price data for the 'YES' outcome.
Live Orderbook
ConnectingBids
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Asks
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PQ Score Distribution
Shows the number of shares held by traders in different PQ Score brackets, separated by outcome.
Market Analysis
Key metrics for this market.
Current Price$0.0250
24h Change+0.10%
24h Volume$57.4K
7d Volume$0
Total Volume$1.46M
Liquidity$87.4K
Open Interest$583.2K
Unique Traders40
Whale Concentration
0.00Market Concentration (HHI)
0.00Recent Trades
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About this Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.