Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
Category: Tech
Created: Jan 2, 2026
Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Price History
Historical price data for the 'YES' outcome.
Live Orderbook
ConnectingBids
| Price | Size |
|---|
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|
PQ Score Distribution
Shows the number of shares held by traders in different PQ Score brackets, separated by outcome.
Market Analysis
Key metrics for this market.
Current Price$0.2900
24h Change-1.00%
24h Volume$0
7d Volume$0
Total Volume$3.5K
Liquidity$3.3K
Open Interest$1.4K
Unique Traders0
Whale Concentration
0.00Market Concentration (HHI)
0.00Recent Trades
| Time | Trader | Side | Price | Shares | Amount (USD) | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
About this Market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".