This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures the listed intersections in Vilne and Kucheriv Yar by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
The intersections will be considered captured if any part of the intersections is shaded blue, indicating a claimed Ukrainian counteroffensive/reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded blue by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
If Ukraine comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Once Ukraine captures the intersections, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
Vilne Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vilne+intersection.png
Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+intersection.png
Location Zoomed: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne+zoom.jpeg
Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kucheriv+Yar+Vilne.jpeg
Vilne Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/mQJabFjS1M5cWNyt5
Kucheriv Yar Intersection Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/FeV7XeKUnqdXMGfx7
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
