The next Olympics are scheduled to be held in Milan–Cortina from February 6 to 22, 2026. Recent reporting indicates the IOC is considering a ban on transgender women competing in the female category. You can read more about that here: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/nov/10/ioc-edges-closer-to-ban-on-transgender-women-in-female-olympic-events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Olympic Committee (IOC) officially bans transgender women from competing in the female category by February 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying ban must affect at least one sport and apply to at least one clearly defined group, for example, transgender women who have undergone male puberty, individuals subject to specified testosterone-threshold policies, or athletes with differences of sexual development (DSD).
An official declaration of a qualifying ban within the specified timeframe will suffice, regardless of whether it is later revoked.
Only IOC-imposed bans will qualify; bans or eligibility rules issued by other authorities, such as International Federations or National Olympic Committees, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official IOC communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
