Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill extending or reinstating the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying bill may extend or reinstate the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues or reinstates enhanced premium tax credits which have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that will otherwise apply if the credits expire.
A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.
If the bill is signed into law before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes," regardless of when it takes effect.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
