Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025?

Category: Politics
Created: Nov 5, 2025
Closes: N/A
PoliticsrussiaUkraineTrumpputinGeopolitics
Price History
Historical price data for the 'YES' outcome.

Live Orderbook

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PQ Score Distribution
Shows the number of shares held by traders in different PQ Score brackets, separated by outcome.
Market Analysis
Key metrics for this market.
Current Price$0.0340
24h Change-0.40%
24h Volume$575
7d Volume$0
Total Volume$57.7K
Liquidity$21.9K
Open Interest$0
Unique Traders0
Whale Concentration
0.00
Market Concentration (HHI)
0.00
Recent Trades
TimeTraderSidePriceSharesAmount (USD)Tx
About this Market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2025? | Polymarkets | PolyLeviathan