This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying ban must have gone into effect during the market window and may occur through any of the following:
CFTC Action: A final order, rule, or directive under Regulation 40.11 or other CFTC authority that results in the removal or suspension of sports event contracts, either nationally or within one or more states.
Court Order or Judgment: A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or final judgment issued by a U.S. federal or state court that has the effect of suspending or terminating user access to sports event contracts in one or more states or nationwide. This includes situations where a court denies an exchange’s claim of federal preemption and thereby allows a state to enforce its gambling laws against sports event contracts while adjudication is pending, leading to blocked access in that state.
State Enforcement Upheld by Courts: If a state action (such as a cease-and-desist order or regulatory enforcement) is challenged on preemption grounds and the court declines to enjoin the state, resulting in blocked access to sports event contracts in that state, this will qualify.
To resolve “Yes,” the block or ban must actually take effect (users lose access or ability to trade/maintain positions). Mere announcements, proposed rules, or pending litigation without effect do not qualify.
Voluntary pauses or withdrawals by a DCM or FCM, absent legal compulsion, do not qualify.
If a qualifying block takes effect and is implemented the market will still resolve “Yes” regardless if it is later stayed, reversed, or vacated.
Actions ordered before the deadline but which take effect only after, will not qulaify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
