This market will resolve according to the next date (ET) that Israel officially announces it has agreed to a ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between itself and Hamas.
If Israel does not officially announce that it has agreed to a ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None in October”.
If Israel officially announces an agreement before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from Israel, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating Israel has announced an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
