This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government, within 45 days of the current government shutdown ending, begins implementing a policy under which both furloughed and excepted civilian federal employees will receive full back pay for the entire period of the current government shutdown. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Furloughed and excepted civilian employees refers to employees of federal agencies funded by annual appropriations who have either been furloughed on account of the lapse in appropriations or are excepted from such a furlough and are able to work without pay during the lapse. Uniformed military personnel, U.S. Postal Service employees, government contractors, or other employees of the federal government whose pay is not dependent upon annual appropriations are excluded.
The shutdown will be considered to have ended if the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is not shut down due to a lapse in appropriations. The day following any such announcement will be day 1 of the 45 day count.
An official announcement of the commenced implementation of a policy that both furloughed and excepted federal employees will receive full back pay for the entire period of the government shutdown or a consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a policy is being implemented will both qualify for resolution, even if federal workers do not receive full back pay within this market’s timeframe. Informal announcements or announcements of intent to implement such a policy will not count.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
