This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report before the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces that the U.S. federal government is no longer shut down following the shutdown that began on October 1, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
Partial shutdowns are considered shutdowns, whereas announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as shutdowns.
Both a full release of the monthly Employment Situation reports (nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate) and an official release of the underlying data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics will count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cancels the release or is otherwise rendered incapable of releasing it by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics official release as well as the OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/); however, a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
