This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States enacts an Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) specifically targeting Iran between June 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, both chambers of Congress must pass, and the President (currently Donald Trump) must sign into law, a bill that explicitly authorizes the use of U.S. military force against Iran. The authorization does not need to use the exact phrase “Authorization for Use of Military Force,” but it must clearly and specifically authorize military action against Iran as a state actor.
General defense appropriations, intelligence findings, covert action approvals, or broader regional authorizations that do not explicitly pertain to Iran will not qualify. Presidential orders or military action without such a law being passed and signed will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official U.S. government records (e.g., Congress.gov, White House releases) however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
