This market will resolve to "Yes" if any named tropical system makes landfall within 50 miles of Miami, Florida (25.7617° N, 80.1918° W) as a Category 3 or higher hurricane, between June 9 and November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, based on data from official NHC operational advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify, the storm must be classified as a Category 3 or higher hurricane at the time of landfall. Reports of Category 3 or higher intensity at other locations or times do not qualify. Only the intensity at the landfall point within the specified radius will qualify.
If a hurricane makes multiple qualifying landfalls, each will be evaluated independently for resolution.
The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Miami (25.7617° N, 80.1918° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
A Category 3 or higher hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with 1-minute sustained surface winds of at least 111 mph, according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php).
For the purposes of this market, hurricane categories are defined by NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php), and a hurricane landfall is considered to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL).
This market will resolve based on the initial advisory issued by the NHC confirming a qualifying landfall, regardless of any later revision or reanalysis that contradicts the original report. Data may also be corroborated by the HURDAT2 database (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/#hurdat) if needed.
