This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kucheriv Yar by October 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.
Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Kucheriv Yar shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
Once Ukraine captures territory of Kucheriv Yar, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the territory of Kucheriv Yar as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
