This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the eleventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market pertains to the eleventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the eleventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the eleventh launch, and this market will stay open until the eleventh launch has occurred. If the eleventh launch has not occurred by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
