Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?

Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?

Category: World
Created: Jul 23, 2025
Closes: Dec 31, 2025
Chinaworld affairsWorld
Price History
Historical price data for the 'YES' outcome.

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PQ Score Distribution
Shows the number of shares held by traders in different PQ Score brackets, separated by outcome.
Market Analysis
Key metrics for this market.
Current Price$0.7400
24h Change+61.00%
24h Volume$70.0K
7d Volume$0
Total Volume$128.8K
Liquidity$18.3K
Open Interest$0
Unique Traders40
Whale Concentration
-2.20
Market Concentration (HHI)
0.05
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About this Market

On April 4, China implemented a series of restrictions on the export of a variety of rare earth metals. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Chinese government officially lifts, removes, or reduces any of the export restrictions placed on rare earth metals on April 4, between July 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The issuance of a qualifying official act by China within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or reduction of the stated export ban does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.