This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) or provides official written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the WTO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of withdrawl refers to the submission of a written notice of withdrawal as per Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization (https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/wto_agree_art15_oth.pdf).
Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.
The resolution source will be official information from the US government and the WTO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
