This market will resolve to "Mamdani" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 New York City Mayor election is greater than the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the 2025 Virginia Governor election.
This market will resolve to "Spanberger" if the Democratic candidate’s margin of victory in the Virginia Governor election is greater than in the New York City Mayor election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the difference in percentage points between the Democratic and Republican candidates’ final vote shares in each election.
If the margin of victory is identical, or if the results of either election are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will resolve 50-50.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to the official election authority responsible for conducting each election (the New York City Board of Elections and the Virginia Department of Elections).
